Barrel without fund: the public’s stomach’s reluctance to read and piso piso to inflation

President Alberto Fernández recently met with governors.  Nada is free
President Alberto Fernández recently met with governors. Nada is free

In the first 5 months of 2022 the State started a recycling machine: by Ganancias enters the fiscal arcs 13.3% more funds (discounted inflation) that in the current period of 2021, the reports of social security increase 8.7%, the import rates 7.9% and the commodities 5 , 7 per cent. In constant terms, the second major increase for the period from the year 2000 is only higher than the current level of 2013. The May data, totally decreasing, show a major increase: + 26.9% in Ganancias, +24, 5% in Personal Stores, + 12.6% in total.

Pero no alcanza, porque el gasto p creplico crece más rapid. “In fiscal matter it is probable that there is more to it than the opportunity to balance more rapidly the currents of the goblin, in a context in which the springs crack and rhythm”, Says a studio de Marcelo Capello, Marcelo Cugno and Jonás Alvaradofrom the Global Fundamentals of the Mediterranean, which calculates that as the first quarter the national public interest rate is subdued on the part of inflation (that is, the constant constant constant in real terms), with a prime deficit of 0 37% periodically, the Hebrew state has a super value of 0.31% of PIB.

The graph as well as the increase of the upper body from the reduction and the inflation rate, which runs in parallel
The graph as well as the increase of the upper body from the reduction and the inflation rate, which runs in parallel

This does not implicitly approve (in fiscal) the first revision of the FMI. More complicated exchange rates complement the “BCRA Assistance Theory” meta in the second trimester. No need to spend more than $ 438,500 million, only $ 380,500 million in June and the public sector should pay for the median average.

For the first four quarters, with more detailed data, the exact measurements that the “economic subsidiaries” (energy, transport, gas) are less than 48.1% of inflation, the “current” transfers to the provinces 19.2% and ” of capital ”16% more. Of course, there is no shortage of inflation; do not watch the most conservative, as well as (+ 10.9% on the rate of screw cost indexes) and anniversaries (+ 5.1%).

Department

A su vez, transfers to provinces, adding “automatic” (by way of participation) and “discretionary” (by “political” criterion) are applied, with constant values, at the highest level of the ultimate 22 years In addition, the PIB terminals (3.1%) are expected to be higher than 2020, an abnormal year, due to the strong PIB rate.

No hubo ningún rubro del gasto inferior to la inflation; we watch the most “cuidados” games, as well as the votes (+ 10.9%) and the “jubilee” games (+ 5.1%).

Además, the largest share of transfers, still has a lot to offer in the province of Buenos Aires (9.5%), followed by Chaco (9.4%) and Tierra del Fuego (8.3%). The media outlet raised 6% on inflation and solo districts, Córdoba and Neuquén, recalculate the “real” transfers between May and May 2021: Córdoba (-1%) and Neuquén (-4,6%).

It’s notable that all the districts which are above the media of 6% are governed by the official coalition, with the sole and levee of the Corrientes (+ 6.2%), in virtue of the incandescents which, in the summer, forge the tardío auxilio national .

Funds sent to the provinces fueron the mayors of the ultimatums 22 years old for energy.may and set a clear policy
Funds sent to the provinces fueron the mayors of the ultimatums 22 years old for energy.may and set a clear policy

Pasando la gorra

However, the current fiscal departure should be partially absorbed by the recovery capacity, in June the panorama should be complicated by the salary of the recipient and the public employees. As a result, according to the studio, “Tesoro Nacional tends to increase its voluntary locations colloquially on the market, without requiring more than $ 58,000 million in BCRA assistance per month. Even if the BCRA reserves meta, it will be a difficult complication ”.

Up front it is free. “It is worrying -according to the authors- that the creation of the monetary base for fiscal reasons is one of the reasons, even the unique one, because before inflation it is, that the rest of the factors of the short course are in place major inflation (under the type of exchange, salaries, tariffs and other regulated prices, international inflation, export prices) ”.

Present and projected inflation, following the pace of the IPC average from May to December
Present and projected inflation, following the pace of the IPC average from May to December

The numbers that are projected to be clarified with the following: inflation due to 4% monthly commodity supply in May, 70% annual balance growth, up to 5% monthly inflation balance in December 82% and repay December delivery (6%), at the end of the cost index of live screens increased by 97%, scattering three digits.

Tal vez por eso el presidente Alberto Fernández not ceja in the idea of ​​authorizing retorts and the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, apronta su “impuesto a la renta inesperada”. Hay que darle de comer al ogro filantrópico.

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