Because it could be a good moment for the Ukrainian counterattack

Ukrainian service members stand next to a wrecked Russian military vehicle as the Russian attack on Ukraine continues in the Sumy region town of Trostianets in a late-March archive photo (Reuters)
Ukrainian service members stand next to a wrecked Russian military vehicle as the Russian attack on Ukraine continues in the Sumy region town of Trostianets in a late-March archive photo (Reuters)

Guns, pistols, pistols“. This was the request of the Ukrainian foreign minister Dmitro Kuleba during his speech a Brussels. It is what your country needs to have the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity of not just resisting the bloody orderly invasion Vladimir Putin on February 24, but also to win the war in their territory and definitively expel the attacking army. And this possibility is on the table, according to international analysts. Much more after the absolute withdrawal of Russian forces from Kiev and its environs was confirmed.

the troops of Russia They were deported after almost 40 days of not being able to advance in the Ukrainian capital. They are already returning to their country Belarusthe accomplice nation of Put in which will also pay dearly for its logistical and political support. They also went to Donbas, where Moscow wants to increase harassment. The withdrawal of Russian troops from Kiev and the north-east of the country is “largely complete”. In about a week, the Kremlin forces will reposition themselves to the east. The information came from the Pentagon this Wednesday.

As the traditional parade of Russian Victory Day on May 9th Put in wants to show some conquests of the invasion – which he called “special military operation”- before the Russian people. And faced with the lack of control of the Ukrainian capital, now the focus will be on the eastern Donbas region. However, the government of Volodimir Zelensky he believes – and other Western intelligence agencies – he believes he could achieve total victory if he also manages to expel the Russians from there – and from the south of the country. That’s why the desperate request for Kuleba.

The Russian plan is simple and has been unmasked by The Economist: “Whether (Moscow) has enough manpower to take it all remains debatable. By concentrating its efforts in fewer places, Russia hopes to achieve higher numbers. As a result, he withdrew the forces bound for Kiev from Sumy in northeastern Ukraine. Units that were in Belarus are also moving to western Russia, according to railroad tracking websites.“.

However, there are not a few problems facing the invading army. “A quarter of Russia’s initial invasion force may have been wounded or killed“, Assures the magazine and adds that of”Of the 125 battalion battalion groups assembled for the invasion, 29 were “ineffective in combat,” says a Western official, meaning they had to be eliminated or merged with others. Repairing them and moving them east could take about a month.“. Maybe Putin’s party will have to wait.

For its part, an article in the London newspaper Times suggests that Ukrainian forces could finally defeat the attackers if they have the necessary war material. Yet: “Guns, pistols, pistols“. “Ukraine could push back or even “break” the Russian military if Western allies provided it with sufficient and capable weapons, British government sources suggest. The mood in British and Ukrainian military circles has gotten more positive, with government figures believing the Russian military to be “exhausted” and unable to occupy territory in the long term. A shopping list compiled by Ukraine and sent to NATO allies is believed to include aircraft, tanks, armored vehicles, long-range artillery, anti-ship missiles and air defense systems.”, According to an article published today by the journalist Larisa Marrone.

Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky in the city of Bucha, northwest of the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, after the atrocities Russian invaders committed against the civilian population (AFP) were disclosed
Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky in the city of Bucha, northwest of the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, after the atrocities Russian invaders committed against the civilian population (AFP) were disclosed

The Economist coincide: “This is a good time for Ukraine to press its counterattack: on each day of the last week of March, it has gained more territory than it has lost. But as long as Russian troops remain in Belarus, Ukraine will not be able to move all its forces to Donbas. It must protect Kiev and defend its supply lines from the west. However, it should be able to move some units east and south, and do so faster than Russia.“.

Ukraine will also need less flashy things, like Soviet-era artillery ammunition, to power its guns in a long war of attrition. This is the kind of war that could develop. Russia’s original goal was to engulf the Ukrainian forces in the Donbas by attacking their rear, converging on the city of Dnipro. If she tried now, after leaving Kiev and Sumy, her very hips would be vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks from the north and she would risk being surrounded.”Explained the British magazine.

Meanwhile, a British government source told the British newspaper that tanks and any armored vehicle would be crucial for Ukrainian forces to counterattack the Russian invaders. At the time it was known that the Czech Republic gives ten. There are still dozens of them missing.

Putin’s bet -points The Economistis that it can wear down the Ukrainian army before Russia runs out of money“. However, Russian insolvency is likely to come first. “Mark Cancian of CSIS, another think tank, believes that as casualties rise, stocks run out and morale drops, Russian generals will have to unite and force Putin to face the facts. But there will be more fighting first“.

At the moment, Ukraine is conducting a defensive operationsaid Nicholas Drummond, a former British Army officer and defense analyst. “Now they want to recapture the territory. They need vehicles that allow them to storm the positions held by the Russians“. Drummond said the Warrior tracked armored vehicle would be the most useful because it had a high level of protection, could carry troops, and had a 30mm gun, he said. Times.

Despite the optimism that reigns in some Ukrainian military, it would be time to think carefully about the next steps. Analysts believe that it is one thing to expel the Russians from the territories that have been taken since February 24 and quite another to remove them from those places where they are most settled and for a longer time like Crimea or the Donbas. Expelling them from these places would require a large-scale counterattack and other weapons.

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