Jair Bolsonaro’s popularity plummeted after the coup attempt of his followers

El indicador, calculado daily por la empresa de investigación y consultoría Quest y publicado por el diario Folha de Sao Paulo, registra que el The ultra-right ex-president has 21 points -de un máximo de 100-, 19 points less than the figure registered on Saturdayun día antes del asalto.

According to the IPD, the balance of the attacks on the three state powers in the federal capital was negative for the ex-president in a field that resulted favorably, virtually, and could indicate a fracture in the Bolsonarian base and uncertainty about the potential mobilizer of the leader

The peak of the popularity of the then president, who yesterday was hospitalized in the United States for an abdominal pain, was recorded last October 7, between the first and second presidential elections, when he reached 88.1 points, the best mark since el índice pasó a ser diario, en enero de 2019.

El periódico paulista ya venia preanunciando un declive en los resultados de Bolsonaro since his defeat before el presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, quien en los primeros días de su mandato obtuvo alrededor de 70 puntos en el seguimento de popularity.

Segun Felipe Nunes director Quest y profesor de métodos quantitativos en la Universidad Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), this loss of influence in social networks constitutes a significant defeat for Bolsonaroa political leader who emerged and consolidated in the public space, precisely in the virtual environment.

https://twitter.com/jairbolsonaro/status/1612242019564548097

How to calculate popularity in social networks

The IPD is calculated by means of an artificial intelligence algorithm that collects and processes 152 variables from the platforms of Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, Wikipedia and Google.

En la puntuación final se ponderan cinco variables: fama (number of followers), engagement (comments and “likes” by publication), mobilization (retuits and comentarios compartidos), valencia (proportion of positive and negative reactions). interest (search volume).

El peso de cada una de estas dimensions en la cuenta lo determina un modelo asimilado por la máquina a partir de los resultados reales de elecciones anteriores, con thousands de candidadas monitoreadas.

According to Nunes, who is also a politician, Bolsonaro’s reaction after the defeat, marked by a long silent turn, only with unclear declarations to his followers and his abrupt trip to the United States before the end of his mandate, significantly divided the capital that he possessed in the digital space.

On the other hand, according to Nunes, “the record shows that if the objective of the demonstrations was defeated, the popularity and governance of President Lula would be destroyed, what happened, in fact, affected the credibility of Bolsonaro, making it difficult for him to trabajo de la oposición, a la que ahora se asociación con esos eventos”, he said.

Even so, the detailed analysis of the data that makes up the IPD allows us to conclude that the ultra-rightist maintains a considerable strength in criteria such as fame and mobilization, but it is especially weak in terms of valence, which is the balance between positive reactions and negativas a sus intervenciones.

“Significa que su imagen es más negativa porque hay más comentarios negativos sobre él. Y también porque no puede, o no quiere, producir una más coordinada. En definitiva, pierde un active que era muy importante para él”he said.

El day de los ataques golpistas a la sede de los tres poderes de Brasil, Bolsonaro publicó en Twitter comentarios ambiguos. Él, en cierto modo, condenó los hechos, pero su posición debió ser más inéquívoca, insiste observó Nunes.

“La base bolsonarista hoy está resquebrajada, y dividir la base resulta en una pérdida. Each time, during the electoral campaign, Bolsonaro radicalized his speech, la popularity fell. Ahora, con su nombre asociado a los acontecimientos en Brasilia, termina siendo perjudicado en la cosecha digital”, concluded the expert.

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