Macroeconomic and reverse policy deterioration

“It’s like that, but we’re going to be in the middle of nowhere”. More words, or menos, is the resignation of those who ensured the evolution of the most macroeconomic failures of Alberto Fernández’s goblin with the mass of attentions that doctors present at the one-on-one clinical trial The difference is that economists and empiricists are crucifying their goals because the International Monetary Fund is demonstrating tolerance of the end of the market and not encouraging Argentina to abandon the abyss of an uncontrollable crisis.

The liquidity reserves of Banco Central bajan have alarming levels, emperors the fiscal and monetary indicators and the inflation hypertension are very high, the policies of Frente de Todos –infrentados entre sí– parecid mober and its “quintets”, as a result of which it is part of the problem and the solution. The divorce of reality is evident as the inertia is about the future of economics and short-sightedness that can be increased by declaring any extravagant statement or proposalthe cost of destroying any ability to generate confusion.

The false official argument that inflation, which is above 60% international, is due to the escalation of high international commodity and energy commodities owed to the Russian war against Ukraine (led by Brazil and Uruguay killed 10 times) / 11%), take advantage of opportunities that are unproven.

On the one hand, Argentina is increasingly increasing the production and export of foodstuffs, but it has not been able to achieve its extravagant exchange rate, retention and intervention in the markets. Other than that, because of the potential of Vaca Muerta, it also avoids the import of natural liquefied natural gas and liquid fuels; and, in the best case scenario, it is more likely to be able to export GNL. On the other hand, Gobierno insists on subsidizing energy and promoting the actual release of gasoline with international precision imports, without counting the unnecessary dollars. No silo eso. With a 50% more accurate home bay that in the lithographic packs, double-checked frontal announcement is made to brake the vents. For the first time, some months have passed since authorization to authorize imports of cap and lead before the first stage of the Néstor Kirchner gas pipeline, which has been terminated before the invasion of 2023 to import GNL, with international internal auction of civil works.

This situation reveals a major problem: I do not have dollars for all in the BCRA porcelain, at the highest tempo of high liquidation of divisions by the farmer, the higher demand and the supply in the official exchange office.

One test is that liquidation records a record US $ 4231 million by exports of granules by may (more precisely by volume) and that the first few months of this total total US $ 15,330 million (with a 14% internal rate) official purchases of inferior fueron units at 4800 million in the period beginning in 2021.

As of the first quarter of 2022, economist Miguel Brongel Broda estimated at US $ 1165 million the reduction in commercial exchange rate (of tea), which is 19% higher than the total exports (4260 million) lower than 33 % registered for import costs (5425 million).

In the deregulation per row, the dollar’s aspirant granule for energy imports (GNL, diesel and fuel oil), which cracked 157% and demanded US $ 2200 million more than the first four months of this year. In the rest of the sub-rate of 22%, the costs are 3200 million more than five times as much as the import of goods, which inhibits production in different sectors and explains the heterogeneity of evolution – and desecularity – activation.

It is now required to aggregate the costs of major financial institutions (US $ 448 million) and travel and purchase outside the country, totaling US $ 2000 million (500% more than in the 2021 period). 130 million square meter concept.

Según Broda, the Gobierno, can not afford to spend more than a quarter of a month meeting the reserves of international reserves in line with the FMI, but at the end of June the BCRA tends to buy US $ 2500 million, at a rate of 125 million. The primary fiscal deficit and financing metrics of Banco Central al Tesoro, including those negotiating a primary waiver three months from the firm signature.

This is the situation frame, incremental result that the priority for the President now transforms the Supreme Court of Justice into a league of representatives of the provincial governors affine to officialism. All of them, after a variety of interventions by Gobierno, have been prosecuted (telecommunications such as public service; shipped by imports; shipped from 2014 and 2022) and other publicly traded public, user segmentation by pay capacity).

Assuming that, in the first half of this year, Congress has not sanctioned one of the machines in replication of the voting regime in 2020, which disqualifies the supply and periodically the demand with its plaza closures of at least 3 to contracts and adjustments annually indexed by an official official index.

An approximate apartment is the most recent audiovisual spot in the Argentina Presidency saga. Now with the slogan “primer la gente” and clear electoral tone, it includes a grotesque set of options that do not sound like words, such as “between a country that pauses in every nostril or an Argentina that advances defending labor and indemnification” (sic), as the pattern in the black does not occur at the rate of the laboratory charge. Appeal to the disconnection of the young people or the amnesia of the majors, to propose “mayor velocity in their policies before you sell the gane to the precise”. Just 47 times a year from “Rodrigazo” and similar apparatus, like repetitive inflation (tariff rate and exchange rate); full public real estate and net reserves of BCRA tocondo fund. With private inversion and mensual inflation promising that, when updated, approximate to the third digit, claiming a distributive policy asemeja organizes a navigation course sailing through a medium of hilariousness.

Ya se sabe que, salvo escasas y honrosas excecciones, Argentine politicians do not have the upper hand over fiscal austerity. Not much for the lack of prioritization or the adoption of arraigada conduct in many parts that compensates for the loss of public space in broken alcoves with the rest of the money, to avoid the deficit and not being financed by the main issue or still. Act as if the bombers were destined to burn fuel in the fire.

The macroeconomic detachment is not simply turned into a boomerang for official politicians. You also have to be more discriminating with the help you render toward other people. Troubleshooting algunos mes alcanzará decir that necesitan multiple reforms in the State and the economic structure, junta with an economically cost-effective program for the city in series inflation. El cómo será m muchs mucho m importants importante.

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